The Playoff Picture

With just a month left in this season (well, a little less than a month given that the season ends at the end of March), we’re finally able to begin parsing out what the playoffs will look like. Three teams have already clinched, Chihuahua, San Diego, and Kansas City, and another four are pretty much there (barring a monumental collapse in the final three weeks), Baltimore, Empire, Milwuakee, and Utica, which means we’ve got 7 of the 8 playoff teams basically pegged.

What remains to be decided is the final playoff spot. Let’s consider the contenders in this week’s 3 points and their path to the playoffs.

Tacoma Stars

Currently Tacoma is sitting in the final playoff spot with 23 points. While all three teams remaining in contention for the final spot have flaws (there’s a reason they are fighting for the LAST spot), Tacoma does have a positive home record (6-4-1) and a -27 goal differential, thanks to giving up 135 goals so far on the road. And therein lies the rub for Tacoma’s chances of making the playoffs. With 4 matches left to play, three are on the road. So far this season, the Stars have a single road win - not good, Bob.

To make matters even worse, of the three teams Tacoma will face in their final four matches, two are already clinched for the playoffs: San Diego and Kansas City. The other match is against a very beatable and currently last-place Texas Outlaws. Tacoma needs to win that match and then at least win two out of remaining three to feel comfortable. 9 points out of 12 would put them at 32 points at season’s end and, I think, into a playoff spot.

St. Louis Ambush

St. Louis is currently in 9th position with 21 points. The case for Ambush making the playoffs is that they have five matches to play compared to Stars’ four. So even though Ambush are 2 points behind in the standings, they’ve got a match in hand and could make the jump with a win. Not only that, but the five matches are against teams with lesser records. Baltimore, Texas, Dallas, and Milwaukee (2) feels much more winnable than the teams that Tacoma has to face.

So if Tacoma does end up at 32 points (winning three of its remaining four matches), that means St. Louis needs to win four of its five to advance (33 points). Again, much like Tacoma, St. Louis doesn’t do well on the road, having only won two road matches all season. Four of its remaining matches are on the road.

Dallas Sidekicks

Which leaves us with the biggest longshot of the three, Dallas. For Dallas to make it into the playoffs, it would need some major help from the first two. Dallas is currently sitting at 18 points and only has three matches to make up the distance. Granted, all of them are at home. And the opponents aren’t that formidable (Texas, St. Louis, Empire). But with only nine points left to gain, Dallas HAS to win out to have a chance. ANDDDD Tacoma and St. Louis need to absolutely shit the bed.

My Prediction

I think if I was putting money on this, I’d be picking St. Louis. Five matches feels like enough to get this done and if Tacoma doesn’t find a way to beat San Diego or Kansas City, it makes the path even easier for the Ambush. Three weeks to go!

- Dan Vaughn