The NISA Stat Gap

New NISA club Gold Star FC announced an addition to its staff last week. Igor Schmertzler was announced as the club’s new Director of Sports Analytics.  According to the club’s press release, “Igor will define and implement Gold Star's analytics departments focused on identifying new talent, developing existing talent, and continuing to find new ways to leverage analytics as it relates to performance.”

The CEO of the club, Alex Lubyansky, is quoted in the same press release about the hiring. "Data continues to become more and more valuable in the game, and we know it is imperative that we use analytics in order to gain any edge in team and player performance." While Schmertzler’s resume doesn’t appear to be as soccer-related as you might expect, he certainly has a background in multiple industries that leverage analytics to gain advantage. That use of analytics is one that many fans of NISA have been hoping to see more of.

While the league has plenty to focus on, including league stability, improved refereeing, and a host of other internal processes, the hardcore fans of the league have lamented the lack of available data. Even the simplest of data sets, available on the NISA site, is suspect as best. Players are often mispositioned, stats are slow to update, and those of us trying to report on the league pretty much ignore what the league has available.

Steve Johnson, NISA communication specialist, highlighted that the league uses the stats provided by Elevensports (NISA’s online broadcasting partner). “They input them directly into our platform. We have worked with them over time for post-match reviews to increase stats accuracy.” This may explain who is responsible for the less-than reliable (some might say inaccurate) statistics available from NISA. On the other hand, Johnson did mention that clubs “may have agreements with stats providers to provide more detailed stats to technical staff/coaching staffs.”

Of course, those statistics may not be available to the public. And while clubs may be finding solutions for the dearth of data, that isn’t solving the public-facing problem. Modern fans want stats. Long ago, fans might be good with a boxscore and a list of goal scorers, but many NISA fans want extended data sets for better understanding and appreciating the players, teams and league overall. Without help from the league, some NISA fans have gone on their own to provide better data.

Jed Henderson, who runs Scenic City Football Blog, is, in his own words, “a numbers and stats guy.” For him “there’s just something special about taking data and summarizing or visualizing it in a way that makes sense. I loved stories like Moneyball where numbers overcame bias to improve groups or processes.” He graduated from the University of Alabama last year with an MA in Ecoonomics and now works as an operations analyst. While in school, he applying his love of numbers in several part time jobs, including tracking stats for the wheelchair basketball teams. As a fan of Chattanooga Football Club, he was disappointed in the apparent lack of the most well known advanced stat, xG. Should you want more information about xG, I’d suggest this related article, which defines the term as “expected goals (or xG) measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play.”

Image credit: Ray Soldano and Chattanooga FC.

Jed thought, “wouldn’t it be cool to have these stats for my local club? So, the dream began. Combining my knowledge from school, experience tracking stats, and passion for CFC I started working to make it happen.” He first created a model, which he continuously worked to refine (“that process is never truly done, as there’s always ways to improve the model”). Then it was all about feeding the model. “it can be pretty time consuming manually tracking shots from a game.” Last season, Jed managed about half the season, inputting data into his model, which generated more and more accurate expected goal information. And, as might be predicted, “I got a lot of positive feedback which was very encouraging. Having even the barebone xG stats publicly available at this level seems to be unheard of and many people enjoyed reading and engaging with it.”

From Jed’s perspective, the lack of league-provided advanced stats in lower league soccer is not surprising. “It makes sense for a league like the English Premier League to have all the stats available. There are records to be broken, metrics to be tracked, and everything has to be standardized. Having a centralized stats collection and distribution system is a must. In lower league soccer, the data isn’t there for the fans to use and compare their favorite players. The data, whether bought in subscription or tracked in house, is used to improve the performance of the team and gain any competitive advantage possible. It wouldn’t make sense for a club to share what they track, nor would it benefit a league to spend all the money necessary to make all the statistics available.” I would disagree with Jed on this point, as there is clearly a desire for better statistics among the NISA core demographic. Ignoring that desire as a money-saving approach starves off fan interest, something a lower league simply cannot afford to do. Being penny rich and dollar poor will lead to the long-term failure of NISA or any other league trying to thrive in the netherlands of American soccer.

It seems clear that NISA has a stat problem, but is allowing fans to fill the gaps for the moment. Lower leagues have long benefitted from the DIY nature of the American soccer fan, maybe it’s time to support those fans, rather than waiting for them to solve the problem themselves. Fans shouldn’t be any league’s stat department.

- Dan Vaughn