What a season and what a finish! The weekend finalized over half this bracket, with results from the final matches having an impact on who was in and out. Predicting how these playoff matches go will be tough, but I’ve been following along all season and will give my best guesses at the round one matchups that happen on Friday (July 5th).

Interestingly, the conference matchups are being played at single sites.

Western Conference

FC Olympia vs Oakland Soul

Founded as Oly Town FC, FC Olympia is emerging as a regional powerhouse. FC Olympia won the Northwest Division pretty handily, only getting fight back from second-place United PDX and that was a draw. Every other match, FCO won. The team was led in scoring by McKenna Martinez who tallied 8 goals this season. The worry with any team coming out of a small division like the Northwest is how does FC Olympia’s regular season success translate against an opponent from a bigger, better division.

Enter Oakland Soul to test things out. After a scrappy finish in NorCal, Oakland emerged from the pile to get into the playoffs. You don’t get more battle-tested than a team that makes the playoffs out of NorCal. Soul made it into the playoffs with a massive 3-1 win over SF Glens on the final day of the regular season. Shae Murison had a first half hat-trick to bag the three points against last year’s divisional winner. This is a team that is ready to shine in the playoffs. I’m taking Oakland in this round.

Colorado Storm vs California Storm

I said it all season, NorCal is the best Division in the league by a long shot and Cal Storm won it in the final week of the season, leapfrogging SF Glens who had led all season. You can’t make this up. Cal Storm is one of the biggest legacy clubs amateur women’s soccer and it’s great to see them win such a tight one. While Storm is plenty dangerous on the ball and scoring goals, the defense is the truly impressive stat. The team gave up 5 goals all season, in the toughest divisions in the league! That’s less than .5 goals surrendered per match. You are not going to score against Cal Storm.

Madee Dougherty celebrating a player of the match performance. *Image courtesy of CalStorm*

The other Storm crushed the Mountain Division pretty handily this year, but numbers can be a little deceiving. While the team sports an impressive +52GD, they beat last-place Colorado International Soccer Academy 3 times with a combined score of 34-0 (CISA finished with a -88GD). And yes, you play who is on your schedule, but I feel like Cal Storm has a leg up in this opening match and I expect them to win it.

Central Conference

Minnesota Aurora vs Indy Eleven

Woooo! Can’t ask for a better opening playoff matchup than these two giants going at each other. The only sad part is that one of them will be out after Friday.

Aurora did what Aurora always does and finished the regular season undefeated. The Minnesota juggernaut won its last two matches on the road by a combined score of 21-0. And their Heartland Division isn’t a pushover, the top 4 teams are all sport positive records. In fact, the other Central Conference matchup features the Heartland runner-up. Aurora is just that good.

Aurora has had plenty to celebrate this season, rain or shine. *Image courtesy of Minnesota Aurora*

Of course, Indy Eleven is the defending national champion and no slouch. The Valley Division had 5 clubs this season and 4 finished with positive records. Indy certainly gave up more goals than you’d hope from a defending champion, and their last two results (draw and a loss) have to feel a little concerning, particularly with their draw for the first round.

I’m taking Aurora to knock off Indy and yes, I know Aurora’s struggles in the playoffs. This year will be different.

Detroit City vs River Light

Detroit City had a solid run this season and comfortably won the Great Lakes Division over Kalamazoo and Midwest. The team locked it up at Keyworth, winning all their home matches in front of some of the loudest and largest crowds in the W League. That will continue as the Central Conference playoffs will be played in Hamtramck and should give Le Rouge a solid home field advantage. That advantage may be needs because unlike most of the other teams that reached the playoffs, DCFC isn’t a scoring machine, averaging 2.5 goals a match. 2.5 might sound like a lot, but in the W League, it’s pretty pedestrian in comparison with the bigger teams in the league.

River Light has looked dangerous all season. *Image courtesy of River Light FC*

Like River Light, who finished second in the Heartland to Aurora (because who doesn’t) and scored an impressive 4.5 goals a match. Pair that with only giving up less than a goal a match and you get a lot of wins. But the question remains, can River Light go into Keyworth and beat the host club on its home field?

I don’t think so. I’m taking Detroit in this match.

Eastern Conference

NC Courage U23 vs Lancaster Inferno

After finishing runner-up last season, NC Courage just decided to re-up on its dominance of the South Atlantic Division and run the table again. The U23 squad finished undefeated and with an impressive +50GD. If the playoff run last season proved anything, it’s that this team can play with the other big dogs in the league, regardless of division.

Lancaster comes out of the very competitive Mid-Atlantic Division, finishing tied with Eagle FC for the top spot in almost every measurable. It is really hard not to think that Lancaster could make a run in this postseason because how tough their division was. In the second to last match of the season, Inferno went into one of the toughest places to play and knocked off Richmond Ivy 4-2 in front of 5,800 angry Richmond fans. They can play against anyone and look very strong.

I’m taking Lancaster for the win.

Long Island Rough Riders vs Eagle FC

In a league that doesn’t make individual stats easy to find, I can proudly point to Luciana Setteducate as the regular season W League Golden Boot winner. She’s delivered in spades for Long Island this season. And only a season with 13 goals could overshadow a teammate that has dropped 8 of her own, Lia Howard. Long Island is a goal-scoring powerhouse, popping in 69 in the regular season, second-most in the entire league. And they did it consistently, week after week.

The other side of this matchup is Eagle FC, who won one of the toughest divisions in the W League, the Mid-Atlantic. The only blemish on their record is against Ivy at Ivy, which is understandable given the kind of home field advantage Richmond built this season. Eagle FC isn’t the type of club to go wild on the scoring, finishing the season with less goals scored then second-place Lancaster, but timeliness and tenacious defense has kept them at the top of their division and pushed them into the playoffs.

I’m taking Rough Riders in this one. Too much firepower to ignore.

Southern Conference

AHFC Royals vs Tennessee FC

Royals win the first season of the Lone Star Division and were easily the best in the 5 team race. They went 10-0 in the regular season, only giving up 4 goals the entire run. The division was a bit top heavy, with only one other team finishing with a positive win-loss record. Zoe Main had 8 goals in 9 matches for Royals.

Tennessee FC won the South Central Division with Asheville on its heels the entire season. With a record of 9-1-2, Tennessee had to deal with a better than average division all season. While a lot of playoff teams can brag about gaudy defense and staunch net protection, TFC gave up 12 goals in its regular season run, averaging a goal a match. Thankfully, the team scored over 4 goals a match on average as well, so they still won most of their matches. USWNT youth prospect, Madeline Padelski, had 8 goals for Tennessee in the regular season.

I think tested beats perfect in this one, I’ll take Tennessee in a scrappy one.

Florida Elite Soccer Academy vs Asheville City

FESA has to be considered a favorite in the playoffs, given the success the club had throughout the regular season in a pretty strong Southeast Division. The team went 12-0 with a +67GD. Absolutely cruised through the regular season. Vicky Andrinova led the attack for FESA with 11 goals in 8 matches, second in the league Golden Boot race, but don’t forget Olivia Bori (11), Grace Ivey (10), and Georgia Brown (9). This is a powerhouse club when it comes to scoring.

Asheville City comes into the playoff after finishing second in the South Central Division to Tennessee FC. The club’s two losses came at the hands of Greenville, who had their number all season. In comparison to the gaudy numbers of FESA, Asheville is certainly more of a scrapper team. While AC did score 28 goals in 12 matches, the team also gave up 13, for a +15 GD. The primary offensive player was Addison Porter, who had 9 goals for the Blues.

This feels like a win for Florida Elite to me and that’s what I’m picking.